How to read this page
Each row is one game. Tier 1 / Tier 2 is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined runs both teams score, over or under the posted number. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before first pitch, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Tier 1 vs Tier 2Tier 1 is available all day. Tier 2 updates the numbers once both teams' lineups are posted, usually 1 to 3 hours before first pitch. The pick and units follow Tier 2 when it is available, otherwise Tier 1; the tier in use is shown in bold. A red tier number means that tier leans the other way.
Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: 2 when the gap is 5 points or more, otherwise 1. A gap of 20+ points makes the whole game a pass (moneyline and total): the book likely knows something the model does not.
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Book | Gap | Units | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NYM@TEX New York Mets at Texas Rangers | +118 / -127 | NYM | 52.6% | 53.2% | 45.1% | +8.1 | 2u | 1-3 ✗ -2.00u |
MIL@PHI Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | +120 / -130 | MIL | 51.8% | 50.5% | 44.6% | +5.9 | 2u | 5-1 ✓ +2.40u |
CLE@BOS Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | +113 / -122 | BOS | 60.8% | 59.3% | 53.9% | +5.4 | 2u | 1-0 ✗ -2.00u |
STL@PIT St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | +144 / -157 | PIT | 62.9% | 65.0% | 59.8% | +5.1 | 2u | 1-2 ✓ +1.27u |
TB@NYY Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | +135 / -147 | NYY | 60.7% | 61.7% | 58.3% | +3.4 | 1u | 4-6 ✓ +0.68u |
LAA@SEA Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners | +167 / -183 | SEA | 64.5% | 66.5% | 63.3% | +3.2 | 1u | 6-4 ✗ -1.00u |
SD@LAD San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | +149 / -163 | LAD | 60.0% | 60.6% | 60.7% | -0.1 | 1u | 4-2 ✗ -1.00u |
ARI@COL Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies | -188 / +171 | ARI | 64.8% | 61.7% | 63.9% | -2.2 | 1u | 12-8 ✓ +0.53u |
CIN@ATL Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves | +202 / -224 | ATL | 63.7% | 64.6% | 67.6% | -3.0 | 1u | 7-6 ✗ -1.00u |
HOU@OAK Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics | -176 / +161 | HOU | 59.4% | 59.5% | 62.5% | -3.0 | 1u | 7-5 ✓ +0.57u |
MIA@CHC Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs | +184 / -203 | CHC | 61.6% | 62.1% | 65.5% | -3.5 | 1u | 1-2 ✓ +0.49u |
CWS@KC Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals | -135 / +125 | CWS | 52.0% | 50.6% | 56.4% | -5.8 | 1u | 9-1 ✓ +0.74u |
Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. We suggest playing the model's overs only, 1 unit each. Unders are shown for reference.
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Book | Gap | Play | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE@BOS Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 6.5 | -113 / +101 | Over | 60.0% | 60.5% | 51.6% | +8.9 | 1u | 1-0 (1) ✗ -1.00u |
MIA@CHC Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs | 7 | -107 / -105 | Over | 59.6% | 58.7% | 50.2% | +8.5 | 1u | 1-2 (3) ✗ -1.00u |
ARI@COL Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies | 10 | -106 / -106 | Over | 53.0% | 54.5% | 50.0% | +4.5 | 1u | 12-8 (20) ✓ +0.94u |
SD@LAD San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 8 | +103 / -116 | Under | 58.0% | 56.6% | 52.2% | +4.4 | Pass | 4-2 (6) ✓ pass |
CIN@ATL Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves | 8 | -101 / -112 | Over | 52.9% | 52.4% | 48.7% | +3.7 | 1u | 7-6 (13) ✓ +0.99u |
NYM@TEX New York Mets at Texas Rangers | 8.5 | +102 / -115 | Over | 50.2% | 51.7% | 48.1% | +3.6 | 1u | 1-3 (4) ✗ -1.00u |
STL@PIT St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7 | -108 / -104 | Over | 53.7% | 53.1% | 50.5% | +2.7 | 1u | 1-2 (3) ✗ -1.00u |
MIL@PHI Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 8 | +103 / -115 | Over | 52.1% | 50.6% | 47.9% | +2.7 | 1u | 5-1 (6) ✗ -1.00u |
LAA@SEA Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners | 7 | -102 / -110 | Over | 52.2% | 51.6% | 49.1% | +2.5 | 1u | 6-4 (10) ✓ +0.98u |
HOU@OAK Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics | 10.5 | -115 / -105 | Over | 49.7% | 51.1% | 51.1% | +0.1 | 1u | 7-5 (12) ✓ +0.87u |
CWS@KC Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals | 9 | +103 / -116 | Under | 52.8% | 52.2% | 52.2% | +0.1 | Pass | 9-1 (10) ✗ pass |
TB@NYY Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 6 | -106 / -106 | Model update pending | 4-6 (10) pass | |||||
Track record
Graded on the last update before first pitch, 1 unit flat on the model's side at the posted price. ROI range is a 95% interval.
Moneyline
| Sample | Games | W-L-P | Hit rate | Units | ROI (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model All games since 09/06 · Tier 2 when posted, else Tier 1 | 303 | 192-111 | 63.4% | +27.02 | +8.9% ±9.5 |
Tier 1 Projected lineups · every game | 303 | 192-111 | 63.4% | +28.12 | +9.3% ±9.6 |
Tier 2 Posted lineups · games where both lineups were out | 297 | 189-108 | 63.6% | +28.20 | +9.5% ±9.6 |
Model, current version Since 09/21 | 103 | 64-39 | 62.1% | +8.29 | +8.0% ±16.7 |
After 303 graded games the model is not yet ahead of the market. The ROI range includes zero, so the record so far is consistent with no edge.
Recent results
Last 40 graded picks, moneylines and totals. Units won at the suggested stake: moneyline 2u / 1u from 10/01, 1u flat before; totals 1u, overs only from 10/01.
| Date | Game | Market | Pick | Price | Model | Final | Result | Stake | Units won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05 | NYY @ TB | Moneyline | TB | +109 | 51.7% | 2-5 | Win | 1u | +1.09 |
| 10/05 | NYY @ TB | Total | Over 6.5 | -110 | 57.5% | 2-5 (7) | Win | 1u | +0.91 |
| 10/05 | CWS @ CLE | Moneyline | CLE | -148 | 58.5% | 4-3 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/05 | CWS @ CLE | Total | Over 6.5 | -115 | 57.0% | 4-3 (7) | Win | 1u | +0.87 |
| 10/04 | SD @ MIL | Moneyline | MIL | -127 | 65.4% | 3-4 | Win | 2u | +1.57 |
| 10/04 | SD @ MIL | Total | Over 7 | -111 | 54.5% | 3-4 (7) | Push | 1u | +0.00 |
| 10/04 | ATL @ LAD | Moneyline | LAD | -226 | 64.7% | 3-2 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | SD @ MIL | Moneyline | MIL | -195 | 75.5% | 2-3 | Win | 2u | +1.03 |
| 10/03 | SD @ MIL | Total | Over 7 | +101 | 57.5% | 2-3 (5) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | NYY @ TB | Moneyline | TB | -129 | 60.2% | 0-1 | Win | 1u | +0.78 |
| 10/03 | NYY @ TB | Total | Over 7 | -103 | 63.3% | 0-1 (1) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | CWS @ CLE | Moneyline | CLE | -140 | 63.0% | 3-0 | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/03 | CWS @ CLE | Total | Over 7 | +107 | 55.0% | 3-0 (3) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | ATL @ LAD | Moneyline | LAD | -217 | 70.3% | 3-5 | Win | 1u | +0.46 |
| 10/03 | ATL @ LAD | Total | Over 8 | -112 | 53.3% | 3-5 (8) | Push | 1u | +0.00 |
| 10/01 | PHI @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | -105 | 50.6% | 2-6 | Win | 1u | +0.95 |
| 10/01 | PHI @ ATL | Total | Over 7.5 | -103 | 59.0% | 2-6 (8) | Win | 1u | +0.97 |
| 09/30 | PHI @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | +103 | 50.8% | 4-3 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/30 | PHI @ ATL | Total | Over 7 | -114 | 64.5% | 4-3 (7) | Push | 1u | +0.00 |
| 09/30 | CWS @ HOU | Moneyline | HOU | -145 | 60.9% | 7-3 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/30 | CWS @ HOU | Total | Under 7.5 | -109 | 51.1% | 7-3 (10) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/30 | CHC @ SD | Moneyline | SD | -136 | 54.0% | 1-4 | Win | 1u | +0.74 |
| 09/30 | CHC @ SD | Total | Over 7.5 | +108 | 50.4% | 1-4 (5) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/30 | BOS @ NYY | Moneyline | NYY | -128 | 62.0% | 2-9 | Win | 1u | +0.78 |
| 09/30 | BOS @ NYY | Total | Over 6.5 | -122 | 59.0% | 2-9 (11) | Win | 1u | +0.82 |
| 09/29 | PHI @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | -172 | 61.1% | 3-5 | Win | 1u | +0.58 |
| 09/29 | PHI @ ATL | Total | Over 7 | +104 | 56.2% | 3-5 (8) | Win | 1u | +1.04 |
| 09/29 | CWS @ HOU | Moneyline | HOU | -118 | 53.5% | 6-3 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/29 | CWS @ HOU | Total | Over 8 | -114 | 54.0% | 6-3 (9) | Win | 1u | +0.88 |
| 09/29 | CHC @ SD | Moneyline | SD | -130 | 51.0% | 0-8 | Win | 1u | +0.77 |
| 09/29 | CHC @ SD | Total | Over 7.5 | -104 | 57.9% | 0-8 (8) | Win | 1u | +0.96 |
| 09/29 | BOS @ NYY | Moneyline | NYY | -126 | 56.1% | 0-9 | Win | 1u | +0.79 |
| 09/27 | TEX @ MIN | Moneyline | MIN | +102 | 52.8% | 4-6 | Win | 1u | +1.02 |
| 09/27 | TB @ PHI | Moneyline | PHI | -187 | 57.2% | 3-7 | Win | 1u | +0.53 |
| 09/27 | TB @ PHI | Total | Under 7 | +101 | 52.9% | 3-7 (10) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/27 | STL @ MIL | Moneyline | MIL | -201 | 77.7% | 4-6 | Win | 1u | +0.50 |
| 09/27 | STL @ MIL | Total | Over 7 | -105 | 51.9% | 4-6 (10) | Win | 1u | +0.95 |
| 09/27 | PIT @ DET | Moneyline | PIT | +103 | 53.6% | 4-2 | Win | 1u | +1.03 |
| 09/27 | PIT @ DET | Total | Under 8 | -104 | 54.5% | 4-2 (6) | Win | 1u | +0.96 |
| 09/27 | NYM @ WSH | Moneyline | NYM | -106 | 53.5% | 4-6 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |