How to read this page
Each row is one game. Tier 1 / Tier 2 is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined runs both teams score, over or under the posted number. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before first pitch, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Tier 1 vs Tier 2Tier 1 is available all day. Tier 2 updates the numbers once both teams' lineups are posted, usually 1 to 3 hours before first pitch. The pick and units follow Tier 2 when it is available, otherwise Tier 1; the tier in use is shown in bold. A red tier number means that tier leans the other way.
Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: 2 when the gap is 5 points or more, otherwise 1. A gap of 20+ points makes the whole game a pass (moneyline and total): the book likely knows something the model does not.
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Book | Gap | Units | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CWS@KC Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals | -114 / +105 | KC | 54.9% | 55.9% | 47.8% | +8.1 | 2u | 4-5 ✓ +2.10u |
NYM@TEX New York Mets at Texas Rangers | -103 / -105 | NYM | 56.3% | 56.6% | 49.8% | +6.9 | 2u | 7-2 ✓ +1.94u |
HOU@SEA Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | +113 / -122 | SEA | 58.0% | 59.8% | 53.9% | +5.8 | 2u | 5-6 ✓ +1.64u |
LAA@OAK Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics | -130 / +120 | OAK | 52.3% | 50.2% | 44.6% | +5.6 | 2u | 3-7 ✓ +2.40u |
TOR@BALG2 Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | +106 / -115 | TOR | 52.1% | 51.9% | 47.6% | +4.4 | 1u | 2-4 ✗ -1.00u |
ARI@COL Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies | -161 / +148 | ARI | 66.2% | 64.6% | 60.5% | +4.2 | 1u | 5-3 ✓ +0.62u |
TB@NYY Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | +123 / -133 | NYY | 57.8% | 59.9% | 56.0% | +3.9 | 1u | 2-9 ✓ +0.75u |
SD@LAD San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | +197 / -218 | LAD | 69.0% | 69.8% | 67.1% | +2.7 | 1u | 5-1 ✗ -1.00u |
TOR@BAL Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | +106 / -115 | TOR | 50.3% | 50.2% | 47.6% | +2.7 | 1u | 2-4 ✗ -1.00u |
CIN@ATL Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves | +233 / -261 | ATL | 74.2% | 73.1% | 70.7% | +2.4 | 1u | 2-3 ✓ +0.38u |
MIA@CHC Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs | +159 / -174 | CHC | 64.9% | 64.6% | 62.2% | +2.4 | 1u | 3-2 ✗ -1.00u |
CLE@BOS Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | +123 / -133 | BOS | 59.9% | 58.4% | 56.0% | +2.4 | 1u | 0-1 ✓ +0.75u |
STL@PIT St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | +124 / -134 | PIT | 55.6% | 56.7% | 56.2% | +0.5 | 1u | 5-1 ✗ -1.00u |
WSH@DET Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers | +151 / -165 | DET | 61.3% | 60.7% | 61.0% | -0.3 | 1u | 4-2 ✗ -1.00u |
MIL@PHI Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | -122 / +113 | MIL | 51.6% | 52.6% | 53.9% | -1.3 | 1u | 4-1 ✓ +0.82u |
MIN@SF Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants | -146 / +135 | MIN | 52.1% | 51.0% | 58.2% | -7.2 | 1u | 4-2 ✓ +0.68u |
Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. We suggest playing the model's overs only, 1 unit each. Unders are shown for reference.
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Book | Gap | Play | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE@BOS Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 6.5 | -115 / +103 | Over | 63.8% | 66.6% | 52.1% | +14.6 | 1u | 0-1 (1) ✗ -1.00u |
MIA@CHC Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs | 6.5 | -117 / +104 | Over | 62.8% | 62.0% | 52.4% | +9.7 | 1u | 3-2 (5) ✗ -1.00u |
STL@PIT St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7 | -119 / +105 | Over | 59.2% | 61.2% | 52.7% | +8.5 | 1u | 5-1 (6) ✗ -1.00u |
TB@NYY Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 6.5 | -105 / -107 | Over | 59.2% | 57.9% | 49.8% | +8.2 | 1u | 2-9 (11) ✓ +0.95u |
TOR@BAL Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | 7 | -120 / +100 | Over | 62.2% | 60.2% | 52.2% | +8.1 | 1u | 2-4 (6) ✗ -1.00u |
TOR@BALG2 Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | 7.5 | -103 / -110 | Over | 56.5% | 56.3% | 49.2% | +7.1 | 1u | 2-4 (6) ✗ -1.00u |
NYM@TEX New York Mets at Texas Rangers | 8 | -102 / -110 | Over | 55.1% | 54.6% | 49.1% | +5.5 | 1u | 7-2 (9) ✓ +0.98u |
MIL@PHI Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 7 | -107 / -105 | Over | 54.9% | 54.6% | 50.2% | +4.4 | 1u | 4-1 (5) ✗ -1.00u |
CWS@KC Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals | 8.5 | -108 / -104 | Over | 55.9% | 54.6% | 50.5% | +4.1 | 1u | 4-5 (9) ✓ +0.93u |
SD@LAD San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 8 | -114 / +102 | Under | 52.8% | 51.5% | 48.2% | +3.3 | Pass | 5-1 (6) ✓ pass |
CIN@ATL Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves | 7 | -112 / -101 | Over | 54.9% | 53.7% | 51.3% | +2.4 | 1u | 2-3 (5) ✗ -1.00u |
WSH@DET Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers | 7.5 | -109 / -103 | Over | 53.1% | 52.5% | 50.7% | +1.8 | 1u | 4-2 (6) ✗ -1.00u |
LAA@OAK Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics | 9.5 | -105 / -115 | Over | 48.3% | 50.1% | 48.9% | +1.2 | 1u | 3-7 (10) ✓ +0.95u |
MIN@SF Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants | 8 | -104 / -108 | Over | 51.3% | 50.1% | 49.5% | +0.6 | 1u | 4-2 (6) ✗ -1.00u |
HOU@SEA Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 7.5 | -116 / +103 | Over | 52.8% | 52.1% | 52.2% | -0.1 | 1u | 5-6 (11) ✓ +0.86u |
ARI@COL Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies | 11 | -111 / -101 | Model update pending | 5-3 (8) pass | |||||
Track record
Graded on the last update before first pitch, 1 unit flat on the model's side at the posted price. ROI range is a 95% interval.
Moneyline
| Sample | Games | W-L-P | Hit rate | Units | ROI (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model All games since 09/06 · Tier 2 when posted, else Tier 1 | 303 | 192-111 | 63.4% | +27.02 | +8.9% ±9.5 |
Tier 1 Projected lineups · every game | 303 | 192-111 | 63.4% | +28.12 | +9.3% ±9.6 |
Tier 2 Posted lineups · games where both lineups were out | 297 | 189-108 | 63.6% | +28.20 | +9.5% ±9.6 |
Model, current version Since 09/21 | 103 | 64-39 | 62.1% | +8.29 | +8.0% ±16.7 |
After 303 graded games the model is not yet ahead of the market. The ROI range includes zero, so the record so far is consistent with no edge.
Recent results
Last 40 graded picks, moneylines and totals. Units won at the suggested stake: moneyline 2u / 1u from 10/01, 1u flat before; totals 1u, overs only from 10/01.
| Date | Game | Market | Pick | Price | Model | Final | Result | Stake | Units won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05 | NYY @ TB | Moneyline | TB | +109 | 51.7% | 2-5 | Win | 1u | +1.09 |
| 10/05 | NYY @ TB | Total | Over 6.5 | -110 | 57.5% | 2-5 (7) | Win | 1u | +0.91 |
| 10/05 | CWS @ CLE | Moneyline | CLE | -148 | 58.5% | 4-3 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/05 | CWS @ CLE | Total | Over 6.5 | -115 | 57.0% | 4-3 (7) | Win | 1u | +0.87 |
| 10/04 | SD @ MIL | Moneyline | MIL | -127 | 65.4% | 3-4 | Win | 2u | +1.57 |
| 10/04 | SD @ MIL | Total | Over 7 | -111 | 54.5% | 3-4 (7) | Push | 1u | +0.00 |
| 10/04 | ATL @ LAD | Moneyline | LAD | -226 | 64.7% | 3-2 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | SD @ MIL | Moneyline | MIL | -195 | 75.5% | 2-3 | Win | 2u | +1.03 |
| 10/03 | SD @ MIL | Total | Over 7 | +101 | 57.5% | 2-3 (5) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | NYY @ TB | Moneyline | TB | -129 | 60.2% | 0-1 | Win | 1u | +0.78 |
| 10/03 | NYY @ TB | Total | Over 7 | -103 | 63.3% | 0-1 (1) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | CWS @ CLE | Moneyline | CLE | -140 | 63.0% | 3-0 | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/03 | CWS @ CLE | Total | Over 7 | +107 | 55.0% | 3-0 (3) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | ATL @ LAD | Moneyline | LAD | -217 | 70.3% | 3-5 | Win | 1u | +0.46 |
| 10/03 | ATL @ LAD | Total | Over 8 | -112 | 53.3% | 3-5 (8) | Push | 1u | +0.00 |
| 10/01 | PHI @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | -105 | 50.6% | 2-6 | Win | 1u | +0.95 |
| 10/01 | PHI @ ATL | Total | Over 7.5 | -103 | 59.0% | 2-6 (8) | Win | 1u | +0.97 |
| 09/30 | PHI @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | +103 | 50.8% | 4-3 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/30 | PHI @ ATL | Total | Over 7 | -114 | 64.5% | 4-3 (7) | Push | 1u | +0.00 |
| 09/30 | CWS @ HOU | Moneyline | HOU | -145 | 60.9% | 7-3 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/30 | CWS @ HOU | Total | Under 7.5 | -109 | 51.1% | 7-3 (10) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/30 | CHC @ SD | Moneyline | SD | -136 | 54.0% | 1-4 | Win | 1u | +0.74 |
| 09/30 | CHC @ SD | Total | Over 7.5 | +108 | 50.4% | 1-4 (5) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/30 | BOS @ NYY | Moneyline | NYY | -128 | 62.0% | 2-9 | Win | 1u | +0.78 |
| 09/30 | BOS @ NYY | Total | Over 6.5 | -122 | 59.0% | 2-9 (11) | Win | 1u | +0.82 |
| 09/29 | PHI @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | -172 | 61.1% | 3-5 | Win | 1u | +0.58 |
| 09/29 | PHI @ ATL | Total | Over 7 | +104 | 56.2% | 3-5 (8) | Win | 1u | +1.04 |
| 09/29 | CWS @ HOU | Moneyline | HOU | -118 | 53.5% | 6-3 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/29 | CWS @ HOU | Total | Over 8 | -114 | 54.0% | 6-3 (9) | Win | 1u | +0.88 |
| 09/29 | CHC @ SD | Moneyline | SD | -130 | 51.0% | 0-8 | Win | 1u | +0.77 |
| 09/29 | CHC @ SD | Total | Over 7.5 | -104 | 57.9% | 0-8 (8) | Win | 1u | +0.96 |
| 09/29 | BOS @ NYY | Moneyline | NYY | -126 | 56.1% | 0-9 | Win | 1u | +0.79 |
| 09/27 | TEX @ MIN | Moneyline | MIN | +102 | 52.8% | 4-6 | Win | 1u | +1.02 |
| 09/27 | TB @ PHI | Moneyline | PHI | -187 | 57.2% | 3-7 | Win | 1u | +0.53 |
| 09/27 | TB @ PHI | Total | Under 7 | +101 | 52.9% | 3-7 (10) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/27 | STL @ MIL | Moneyline | MIL | -201 | 77.7% | 4-6 | Win | 1u | +0.50 |
| 09/27 | STL @ MIL | Total | Over 7 | -105 | 51.9% | 4-6 (10) | Win | 1u | +0.95 |
| 09/27 | PIT @ DET | Moneyline | PIT | +103 | 53.6% | 4-2 | Win | 1u | +1.03 |
| 09/27 | PIT @ DET | Total | Under 8 | -104 | 54.5% | 4-2 (6) | Win | 1u | +0.96 |
| 09/27 | NYM @ WSH | Moneyline | NYM | -106 | 53.5% | 4-6 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |