How to read this page
Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined points both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's points only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before tip-off, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
How the units work. Moneylines stake on the model's win probability for its pick: pass under 70%, 1 unit at 70-75%, 2 at 75-80%, 3 at 80%+. These are mostly big home favourites that pay little, so one loss at 3 units wipes out several wins. Team totals: 1 unit when the model is 8+ points above the book's no-vig price, otherwise pass. Totals (unproven): pass when the book rates our pick higher than the model does, 1 unit at a 0-3 point gap, 2 at 3+. The moneyline and team-total rules were set on Oct 7 from this season's games, so their season records flatter them; the record from Oct 7 on is the real test.
WNBA Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CON@LAS Connecticut Sun at Los Angeles Sparks | +135 / -160 | LAS | 80.8% | 59.1% | +21.7 | 3u | 68-77 ✓ +1.88u |
IND@NYL Indiana Fever at New York Liberty | +120 / -140 | NYL | 73.1% | 56.2% | +16.9 | 1u | 102-109 ✓ +0.71u |
ATL@PHX Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury | -210 / +175 | ATL | 54.9% | 65.1% | -10.1 | Pass | 99-89 ✓ |
Rule record from 10/07 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game
WNBA Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. Units (unproven): pass under a 0-point gap, 1u at 0-3, 2u at 3+.
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IND@NYL Indiana Fever at New York Liberty | 187.5 | -110 / -110 | Under | 65.7% | 50.0% | +15.7 | 2u | 102-109 (211) ✗ -2.00u |
CON@LAS Connecticut Sun at Los Angeles Sparks | 168.5 | -110 / -110 | Over | 60.1% | 50.0% | +10.1 | 2u | 68-77 (145) ✗ -2.00u |
ATL@PHX Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury | 175.5 | -110 / -110 | Over | 56.5% | 50.0% | +6.5 | 2u | 99-89 (188) ✓ +1.82u |
Rule record from 10/05 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game
WNBA Team Totals
Each team's points over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price. Units: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.
| Game | Team | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ATL@PHX Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury | ATL | 90.5 | -105 / -120 | Over | 59.0% | 48.4% | +10.5 | 1u | 99 ✓ |
ATL@PHX Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury | PHX | 86 | -107 / -118 | Under | 67.8% | 51.2% | +16.6 | 1u | 89 ✗ |
CON@LAS Connecticut Sun at Los Angeles Sparks | CON | 82.5 | -108 / -116 | Over | 50.6% | 49.2% | +1.4 | Pass | 68 ✗ |
CON@LAS Connecticut Sun at Los Angeles Sparks | LAS | 85 | -114 / -110 | Over | 58.3% | 50.4% | +7.9 | Pass | 77 ✗ |
IND@NYL Indiana Fever at New York Liberty | IND | 92.5 | -110 / -114 | Under | 69.9% | 50.4% | +19.5 | 1u | 102 ✗ |
IND@NYL Indiana Fever at New York Liberty | NYL | 94.5 | -106 / -118 | Under | 59.6% | 51.3% | +8.3 | 1u | 109 ✗ |
Rule record from 10/07 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game
Recent results
Last 40 graded model leans across moneylines, totals and team totals. Every lean is staked with its market's rule (passes left out).
| Date | Game | Market | Lean | Price | Model | Final | Result | Stake | Units won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04 | NYL @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | -170 | 77.2% | 82-92 | Win | 2u | +1.18 |
| 10/04 | NYL @ ATL | Total | Over 172.5 | -110 | 53.9% | 82-92 (174) | Win | 2u | +1.82 |
| 10/04 | NYL @ ATL | Team total | ATL Over 88 | -119 | 60.5% | 92 pts | Win | 1u | +0.84 |
| 10/04 | LVA @ GSV | Moneyline | GSV | -105 | 70.6% | 60-71 | Win | 1u | +0.95 |
| 10/04 | LVA @ GSV | Total | Over 158.5 | -115 | 54.7% | 60-71 (131) | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/04 | LVA @ GSV | Team total | GSV Over 79.5 | -107 | 60.4% | 71 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/02 | DAL @ GSV | Moneyline | GSV | -340 | 77.3% | 73-77 | Win | 2u | +0.59 |
| 10/02 | DAL @ GSV | Total | Over 159.5 | -108 | 62.5% | 73-77 (150) | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/02 | DAL @ GSV | Team total | DAL Over 75.5 | -115 | 66.4% | 73 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/01 | IND @ LVA | Moneyline | LVA | -190 | 77.0% | 83-94 | Win | 2u | +1.05 |
| 10/01 | IND @ LVA | Total | Under 181.5 | -115 | 51.5% | 83-94 (177) | Win | 1u | +0.87 |
| 09/30 | GSV @ DAL | Total | Over 158 | -106 | 58.6% | 100-108 (208) | Win | 2u | +1.89 |
| 09/30 | ATL @ WAS | Moneyline | ATL | -158 | 72.1% | 93-75 | Win | 1u | +0.63 |
| 09/30 | ATL @ WAS | Total | Over 165.5 | -108 | 67.3% | 93-75 (168) | Win | 2u | +1.85 |
| 09/29 | MIN @ NYL | Moneyline | NYL | +130 | 85.8% | 71-87 | Win | 3u | +3.90 |
| 09/29 | MIN @ NYL | Total | Under 173.5 | -115 | 55.7% | 71-87 (158) | Win | 2u | +1.74 |
| 09/29 | MIN @ NYL | Team total | MIN Under 88 | -111 | 69.3% | 71 pts | Win | 1u | +0.90 |
| 09/29 | MIN @ NYL | Team total | NYL Over 85.5 | -108 | 61.8% | 87 pts | Win | 1u | +0.93 |
| 09/29 | LVA @ IND | Moneyline | IND | -112 | 70.4% | 89-99 | Win | 1u | +0.89 |
| 09/29 | LVA @ IND | Total | Under 183.5 | -108 | 63.1% | 89-99 (188) | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 09/29 | LVA @ IND | Team total | LVA Under 91.5 | -110 | 60.8% | 89 pts | Win | 1u | +0.91 |
| 09/29 | LVA @ IND | Team total | IND Under 92.5 | -120 | 72.2% | 99 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/27 | WAS @ ATL | Total | Over 164.5 | -106 | 68.6% | 77-92 (169) | Win | 2u | +1.89 |
| 09/27 | WAS @ ATL | Team total | WAS Over 78.5 | -116 | 69.8% | 77 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/27 | WAS @ ATL | Team total | ATL Over 85.5 | -108 | 62.4% | 92 pts | Win | 1u | +0.93 |
| 09/27 | NYL @ MIN | Total | Under 172.5 | -110 | 53.6% | 91-75 (166) | Win | 2u | +1.82 |
| 09/27 | NYL @ MIN | Team total | MIN Under 90 | -109 | 69.7% | 75 pts | Win | 1u | +0.92 |
| 09/27 | IND @ LVA | Total | Under 181.5 | -110 | 52.4% | 85-102 (187) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/27 | DAL @ GSV | Total | Over 154 | -113 | 59.3% | 80-104 (184) | Win | 2u | +1.77 |
| 09/24 | TOR @ CON | Total | Over 166.5 | -110 | 63.2% | 81-95 (176) | Win | 2u | +1.82 |
| 09/24 | TOR @ CON | Team total | CON Over 84.5 | -119 | 67.2% | 95 pts | Win | 1u | +0.84 |
| 09/24 | LVA @ PHX | Total | Under 175.5 | -105 | 53.8% | 100-82 (182) | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 09/24 | IND @ MIN | Total | Under 182.5 | -105 | 65.4% | 66-86 (152) | Win | 2u | +1.90 |
| 09/24 | IND @ MIN | Team total | IND Under 93 | -111 | 59.2% | 66 pts | Win | 1u | +0.90 |
| 09/24 | IND @ MIN | Team total | MIN Under 90.5 | -113 | 67.2% | 86 pts | Win | 1u | +0.88 |
| 09/24 | GSV @ LAS | Total | Under 157.5 | -110 | 51.8% | 76-75 (151) | Win | 1u | +0.91 |
| 09/24 | GSV @ LAS | Team total | GSV Under 85.5 | -114 | 68.7% | 76 pts | Win | 1u | +0.88 |
| 09/24 | CHI @ WAS | Total | Over 168.5 | -115 | 56.8% | 93-101 (194) | Win | 2u | +1.74 |
| 09/23 | DAL @ SEA | Total | Under 172.5 | -110 | 57.1% | 103-91 (194) | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 09/23 | ATL @ NYL | Total | Over 174.5 | -108 | 51.4% | 83-65 (148) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |