WNBA · SportsGap
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3 games
WNBA · units by market rule
Moneyline · 1-3u ladder
48-7
+21.1% ROI · +22.8u on 108u
Totals leans · no units
84-66
+7.0% flat 1u · research only
Team totals · 1u at 8+ pts
108-77
+9.9% ROI · +18.2u on 185u
ATL@CON
Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun
104-69
MLCON+35559.6%+38.6Pass✗
TotalU 175.5-11578.1%+27.0✓
TTATL U 92.5-11681.9%+31.01u✗-1.00u
TTCON U 83-11762.2%+11.21u✓+0.85u
LAS@NYL
Los Angeles Sparks at New York Liberty
81-85
MLNYL-37078.8%+3.32u✓+0.54u
TotalU 187.5-11051.9%+1.9✓
TTLAS U 90.5-11761.0%+10.01u✓+0.85u
TTNYL O 98-10754.0%+5.1Pass✗
WAS@LVA
Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces
76-83
MLLVA-28075.7%+4.82u✓+0.71u
TotalO 169.5-11058.0%+8.0✗
TTWAS O 81.5-11551.5%+0.9Pass✗
TTLVA O 87.5-10860.0%+10.81u✗-1.00u
How units are set
  • Moneyline: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.
  • Totals: research only, no units.
  • Team totals: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.
How to read this page

Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.

Totals are the combined points both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's points only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before tip-off, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.

A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

How the units work. Moneylines stake on the model's win probability for its pick: pass under 70%, 1 unit at 70-75%, 2 at 75-80%, 3 at 80%+. These are mostly big home favourites that pay little, so one loss at 3 units wipes out several wins. Team totals: 1 unit when the model is 8+ points above the book's no-vig price, otherwise pass. Game totals are research only (no units): the book's prices have been more accurate than the model's, and no staking rule held up out of sample. The moneyline and team-total rules were set on Oct 7 from this season's games, so their season records flatter them; the record from Oct 7 on is the real test.

WNBA Moneylines

Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.

+1.25u
2-0 · 1-3u ladder · 4u risked
GameAway / HomeModel pickModelBookGapUnitsFinal
ATL@CON
Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun
-474 / +355CON
59.6%
21.0%+38.6Pass104-69 ✗
WAS@LVA
Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces
+230 / -280LVA
75.7%
70.9%+4.82u76-83 ✓
+0.71u
LAS@NYL
Los Angeles Sparks at New York Liberty
+290 / -370NYL
78.8%
75.4%+3.32u81-85 ✓
+0.54u

Rule record from 10/07 on: 2-0 · +3.21u on 4u · +80.1% ROI

WNBA Totals

Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. Research only: no units. The book's prices have been more accurate than the model's on totals.

2-1 · model leans
GameTotalOver / UnderLeanModelBookGapFinal
ATL@CON
Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun
175.5-105 / -115Under
78.1%
51.1%+27.0104-69 (173) ✓
pass
WAS@LVA
Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces
169.5-110 / -110Over
58.0%
50.0%+8.076-83 (159) ✗
pass
LAS@NYL
Los Angeles Sparks at New York Liberty
187.5-110 / -110Under
51.9%
50.0%+1.981-85 (166) ✓
pass
Model's pick wonLost

WNBA Team Totals

Each team's points over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price. Units: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.

-0.29u
2-2 · 1u at 8+ pts · 4u risked
GameTeamTotalOver / UnderLeanModelBookGapUnitsPoints
ATL@CON
Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun
ATL92.5-108 / -116Under
81.9%
50.8%+31.01u104 ✗
ATL@CON
Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun
CON83-108 / -117Under
62.2%
50.9%+11.21u69 ✓
LAS@NYL
Los Angeles Sparks at New York Liberty
LAS90.5-107 / -117Under
61.0%
51.1%+10.01u81 ✓
LAS@NYL
Los Angeles Sparks at New York Liberty
NYL98-107 / -117Over
54.0%
48.9%+5.1Pass85 ✗
WAS@LVA
Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces
WAS81.5-115 / -109Over
51.5%
50.6%+0.9Pass76 ✗
WAS@LVA
Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces
LVA87.5-108 / -116Over
60.0%
49.2%+10.81u83 ✗

Rule record from 10/07 on: 2-1 · +0.86u on 3u · +28.7% ROI

Recent results

Last 40 graded model leans across moneylines, totals and team totals. Every lean is staked with its market's rule (passes left out).

+17.72u
29-11 · last 40 · 50u risked
DateGameMarketLeanPriceModelFinalResultStakeUnits won
10/07NYL @ ATLMoneylineATL-13077.3%98-101Win2u+1.54
10/07NYL @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 86.5-10564.4%101 ptsWin1u+0.95
10/07LVA @ GSVMoneylineGSV-12077.0%81-83Win2u+1.67
10/07LVA @ GSVTeam totalLVA Under 77.5-11063.1%81 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/07LVA @ GSVTeam totalGSV Over 79.5-11059.0%83 ptsWin1u+0.91
10/04NYL @ ATLMoneylineATL-17077.2%82-92Win2u+1.18
10/04NYL @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 88-11960.5%92 ptsWin1u+0.84
10/04LVA @ GSVMoneylineGSV-10570.6%60-71Win1u+0.95
10/04LVA @ GSVTeam totalGSV Over 79.5-10760.4%71 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/02DAL @ GSVMoneylineGSV-34077.3%73-77Win2u+0.59
10/02DAL @ GSVTeam totalDAL Over 75.5-11566.4%73 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/01IND @ LVAMoneylineLVA-19077.0%83-94Win2u+1.05
09/30ATL @ WASMoneylineATL-15872.1%93-75Win1u+0.63
09/29MIN @ NYLMoneylineNYL+13085.8%71-87Win3u+3.90
09/29MIN @ NYLTeam totalMIN Under 88-11169.3%71 ptsWin1u+0.90
09/29MIN @ NYLTeam totalNYL Over 85.5-10861.8%87 ptsWin1u+0.93
09/29LVA @ INDMoneylineIND-11270.4%89-99Win1u+0.89
09/29LVA @ INDTeam totalLVA Under 91.5-11060.8%89 ptsWin1u+0.91
09/29LVA @ INDTeam totalIND Under 92.5-12072.2%99 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/27WAS @ ATLTeam totalWAS Over 78.5-11669.8%77 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/27WAS @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 85.5-10862.4%92 ptsWin1u+0.93
09/27NYL @ MINTeam totalMIN Under 90-10969.7%75 ptsWin1u+0.92
09/24TOR @ CONTeam totalCON Over 84.5-11967.2%95 ptsWin1u+0.84
09/24IND @ MINTeam totalIND Under 93-11159.2%66 ptsWin1u+0.90
09/24IND @ MINTeam totalMIN Under 90.5-11367.2%86 ptsWin1u+0.88
09/24GSV @ LASTeam totalGSV Under 85.5-11468.7%76 ptsWin1u+0.88
09/22TOR @ CHIMoneylineCHI-23076.8%85-97Win2u+0.87
09/22TOR @ CHITeam totalTOR Over 86.5-12561.7%85 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/22MIN @ INDMoneylineIND-10573.9%77-96Win1u+0.95
09/22MIN @ INDTeam totalMIN Under 93.5-12071.8%77 ptsWin1u+0.83
09/22LAS @ LVAMoneylineLVA-140085.1%79-89Win3u+0.21
09/22LAS @ LVATeam totalLVA Under 97.5-12063.7%89 ptsWin1u+0.83
09/22GSV @ PDXTeam totalGSV Under 85.5-11561.9%82 ptsWin1u+0.87
09/22GSV @ PDXTeam totalPDX Over 71.5-12060.6%90 ptsWin1u+0.83
09/22CON @ WASTeam totalCON Over 71.5-12576.1%69 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/22CON @ WASTeam totalWAS Over 87.5-12075.0%79 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/21DAL @ PHXTeam totalDAL Over 89.5-12064.5%86 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/21DAL @ PHXTeam totalPHX Under 83.5-12058.2%87 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/19SEA @ GSVMoneylineGSV-80071.9%57-70Win1u+0.12
09/19SEA @ GSVTeam totalSEA Over 72-10865.1%57 ptsLoss1u-1.00