How to read this page
Each row is one game. Tier 1 / Tier 2 is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined runs both teams score, over or under the posted number. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before first pitch, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Tier 1 vs Tier 2Tier 1 is available all day. Tier 2 updates the numbers once both teams' lineups are posted, usually 1 to 3 hours before first pitch. The pick and units follow Tier 2 when it is available, otherwise Tier 1; the tier in use is shown in bold. A red tier number means that tier leans the other way.
Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: 2 when the gap is 5 points or more, otherwise 1. A gap of 20+ points makes the whole game a pass (moneyline and total): the book likely knows something the model does not.
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Book | Gap | Units | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SEA@OAK Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics | -148 / +136 | OAK | 43.3% | 54.4% | 41.5% | +12.9 | 2u | 19-1 ✗ -2.00u |
CWS@STL Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals | -106 / -102 | CWS | 57.0% | 61.8% | 50.5% | +11.3 | 2u | 6-5 ✓ +1.89u |
CLE@MIN Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins | -103 / -105 | CLE | 57.0% | 59.8% | 49.8% | +10.1 | 2u | 3-4 ✗ -2.00u |
NYM@NYY New York Mets at New York Yankees | +139 / -151 | NYY | 65.1% | 61.9% | 59.0% | +2.9 | 1u | 12-2 ✗ -1.00u |
CIN@MIL Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers | +185 / -203 | MIL | 70.0% | 67.5% | 65.6% | +1.8 | 1u | 9-13 ✓ +0.49u |
COL@DET Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers | +139 / -151 | DET | 59.4% | 60.4% | 59.0% | +1.4 | 1u | 7-11 ✓ +0.66u |
KC@BOS Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox | +192 / -211 | BOS | 64.8% | 67.2% | 66.5% | +0.7 | 1u | 1-5 ✓ +0.47u |
TEX@ARI Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks | +119 / -129 | ARI | 59.0% | 55.1% | 55.2% | -0.1 | 1u | 6-2 ✗ -1.00u |
PIT@CHC Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs | +111 / -120 | CHC | 55.7% | 53.0% | 53.5% | -0.5 | 1u | 3-4 ✓ +0.83u |
PHI@ATL Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves | +126 / -137 | ATL | 54.3% | 55.7% | 56.6% | -1.0 | 1u | 2-12 ✓ +0.73u |
HOU@TB Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays | +127 / -138 | TB | 54.3% | 54.8% | 56.8% | -2.0 | 1u | 2-3 ✓ +0.72u |
LAD@MIA Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins | -162 / +148 | LAD | 59.9% | 58.1% | 60.5% | -2.4 | 1u | 3-4 ✗ -1.00u |
BAL@TOR Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays | +119 / -129 | TOR | 48.9% | 52.5% | 55.2% | -2.7 | 1u | 3-7 ✓ +0.78u |
LAA@WSH Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals | +116 / -126 | WSH | 52.0% | 50.4% | 54.6% | -4.2 | 1u | 5-6 ✓ +0.79u |
SD@SF San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants | -178 / +163 | SD | 52.0% | 52.1% | 62.7% | -10.6 | 1u | 7-6 ✓ +0.56u |
Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. We suggest playing the model's overs only, 1 unit each. Unders are shown for reference.
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Book | Gap | Play | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PIT@CHC Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs | 9.5 | -107 / -105 | Under | 65.3% | 66.2% | 49.8% | +16.4 | Pass | 3-4 (7) ✓ pass |
PHI@ATL Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves | 8.5 | +101 / -113 | Under | 63.0% | 63.6% | 51.6% | +12.0 | Pass | 2-12 (14) ✗ pass |
SEA@OAK Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics | 9.5 | -110 / -110 | Under | 53.0% | 61.2% | 50.0% | +11.2 | Pass | 19-1 (20) ✗ pass |
BAL@TOR Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays | 8 | -113 / +101 | Under | 56.4% | 57.9% | 48.4% | +9.5 | Pass | 3-7 (10) ✗ pass |
CWS@STL Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals | 8.5 | +101 / -114 | Over | 58.6% | 56.7% | 48.3% | +8.4 | 1u | 6-5 (11) ✓ +1.01u |
LAD@MIA Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins | 8 | -102 / -110 | Under | 55.1% | 56.8% | 50.9% | +5.9 | Pass | 3-4 (7) ✓ pass |
KC@BOS Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox | 8.5 | -113 / +100 | Under | 51.8% | 53.5% | 48.5% | +5.0 | Pass | 1-5 (6) ✓ pass |
CIN@MIL Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers | 9 | +105 / -118 | Under | 53.1% | 57.5% | 52.6% | +4.9 | Pass | 9-13 (22) ✗ pass |
HOU@TB Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays | 7.5 | -110 / -102 | Under | 53.0% | 52.5% | 49.1% | +3.4 | Pass | 2-3 (5) ✓ pass |
SD@SF San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants | 8 | -105 / -107 | Under | 53.2% | 53.3% | 50.2% | +3.1 | Pass | 7-6 (13) ✗ pass |
COL@DET Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers | 8.5 | -102 / -111 | Under | 52.2% | 52.5% | 51.0% | +1.4 | Pass | 7-11 (18) ✗ pass |
TEX@ARI Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks | 8 | -115 / +102 | Over | 55.0% | 52.6% | 51.9% | +0.6 | 1u | 6-2 (8) P +0.00u |
NYM@NYY New York Mets at New York Yankees | 8 | -112 / -100 | Over | 52.7% | 51.9% | 51.4% | +0.5 | 1u | 12-2 (14) ✓ +0.89u |
LAA@WSH Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals | 8 | -108 / -104 | Over | 51.6% | 51.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 | 1u | 5-6 (11) ✓ +0.93u |
CLE@MIN Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins | 8.5 | +101 / -113 | Under | 55.5% | 51.4% | 51.6% | -0.2 | Pass | 3-4 (7) ✓ pass |
Track record
Graded on the last update before first pitch, 1 unit flat on the model's side at the posted price. ROI range is a 95% interval.
Moneyline
| Sample | Games | W-L-P | Hit rate | Units | ROI (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model All games since 09/06 · Tier 2 when posted, else Tier 1 | 305 | 193-112 | 63.3% | +26.77 | +8.8% ±9.5 |
Tier 1 Projected lineups · every game | 305 | 193-112 | 63.3% | +27.87 | +9.1% ±9.5 |
Tier 2 Posted lineups · games where both lineups were out | 299 | 190-109 | 63.5% | +27.95 | +9.3% ±9.6 |
Model, current version Since 09/21 | 105 | 65-40 | 61.9% | +8.04 | +7.7% ±16.5 |
After 305 graded games the model is not yet ahead of the market. The ROI range includes zero, so the record so far is consistent with no edge.
Recent results
Last 40 graded picks, moneylines and totals. Units won at the suggested stake: moneyline 2u / 1u from 10/01, 1u flat before; totals 1u, overs only from 10/01.
| Date | Game | Market | Pick | Price | Model | Final | Result | Stake | Units won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06 | MIL @ SD | Moneyline | SD | -133 | 53.3% | 3-4 | Win | 1u | +0.75 |
| 10/06 | MIL @ SD | Total | Over 7.5 | -102 | 51.6% | 3-4 (7) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/06 | LAD @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | -101 | 51.4% | 3-1 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/06 | LAD @ ATL | Total | Over 6.5 | -109 | 55.0% | 3-1 (4) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/05 | NYY @ TB | Moneyline | TB | +109 | 51.7% | 2-5 | Win | 1u | +1.09 |
| 10/05 | NYY @ TB | Total | Over 6.5 | -110 | 57.5% | 2-5 (7) | Win | 1u | +0.91 |
| 10/05 | CWS @ CLE | Moneyline | CLE | -148 | 58.5% | 4-3 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/05 | CWS @ CLE | Total | Over 6.5 | -115 | 57.0% | 4-3 (7) | Win | 1u | +0.87 |
| 10/04 | SD @ MIL | Moneyline | MIL | -127 | 65.4% | 3-4 | Win | 2u | +1.57 |
| 10/04 | SD @ MIL | Total | Over 7 | -111 | 54.5% | 3-4 (7) | Push | 1u | +0.00 |
| 10/04 | ATL @ LAD | Moneyline | LAD | -226 | 64.7% | 3-2 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | SD @ MIL | Moneyline | MIL | -195 | 75.5% | 2-3 | Win | 2u | +1.03 |
| 10/03 | SD @ MIL | Total | Over 7 | +101 | 57.5% | 2-3 (5) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | NYY @ TB | Moneyline | TB | -129 | 60.2% | 0-1 | Win | 1u | +0.78 |
| 10/03 | NYY @ TB | Total | Over 7 | -103 | 63.3% | 0-1 (1) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | CWS @ CLE | Moneyline | CLE | -140 | 63.0% | 3-0 | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/03 | CWS @ CLE | Total | Over 7 | +107 | 55.0% | 3-0 (3) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | ATL @ LAD | Moneyline | LAD | -217 | 70.3% | 3-5 | Win | 1u | +0.46 |
| 10/03 | ATL @ LAD | Total | Over 8 | -112 | 53.3% | 3-5 (8) | Push | 1u | +0.00 |
| 10/01 | PHI @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | -105 | 50.6% | 2-6 | Win | 1u | +0.95 |
| 10/01 | PHI @ ATL | Total | Over 7.5 | -103 | 59.0% | 2-6 (8) | Win | 1u | +0.97 |
| 09/30 | PHI @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | +103 | 50.8% | 4-3 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/30 | PHI @ ATL | Total | Over 7 | -114 | 64.5% | 4-3 (7) | Push | 1u | +0.00 |
| 09/30 | CWS @ HOU | Moneyline | HOU | -145 | 60.9% | 7-3 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/30 | CWS @ HOU | Total | Under 7.5 | -109 | 51.1% | 7-3 (10) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/30 | CHC @ SD | Moneyline | SD | -136 | 54.0% | 1-4 | Win | 1u | +0.74 |
| 09/30 | CHC @ SD | Total | Over 7.5 | +108 | 50.4% | 1-4 (5) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/30 | BOS @ NYY | Moneyline | NYY | -128 | 62.0% | 2-9 | Win | 1u | +0.78 |
| 09/30 | BOS @ NYY | Total | Over 6.5 | -122 | 59.0% | 2-9 (11) | Win | 1u | +0.82 |
| 09/29 | PHI @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | -172 | 61.1% | 3-5 | Win | 1u | +0.58 |
| 09/29 | PHI @ ATL | Total | Over 7 | +104 | 56.2% | 3-5 (8) | Win | 1u | +1.04 |
| 09/29 | CWS @ HOU | Moneyline | HOU | -118 | 53.5% | 6-3 | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/29 | CWS @ HOU | Total | Over 8 | -114 | 54.0% | 6-3 (9) | Win | 1u | +0.88 |
| 09/29 | CHC @ SD | Moneyline | SD | -130 | 51.0% | 0-8 | Win | 1u | +0.77 |
| 09/29 | CHC @ SD | Total | Over 7.5 | -104 | 57.9% | 0-8 (8) | Win | 1u | +0.96 |
| 09/29 | BOS @ NYY | Moneyline | NYY | -126 | 56.1% | 0-9 | Win | 1u | +0.79 |
| 09/27 | TEX @ MIN | Moneyline | MIN | +102 | 52.8% | 4-6 | Win | 1u | +1.02 |
| 09/27 | TB @ PHI | Moneyline | PHI | -187 | 57.2% | 3-7 | Win | 1u | +0.53 |
| 09/27 | TB @ PHI | Total | Under 7 | +101 | 52.9% | 3-7 (10) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/27 | STL @ MIL | Moneyline | MIL | -201 | 77.7% | 4-6 | Win | 1u | +0.50 |